An integrated assessment for China’s Paris Agreement and air quality targets to support its 14th Five-Year Plan

Ongoing

started:

2019

Air pollution prevention and low carbon development are key topics for policy making in China. The 2018 IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C identified emission pathways with no or little overshoot above the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement this century. Subsequently, the Chinese government announced that it will implement policies to meet the Paris Agreement’s 2°C target and aim to achieve the 1.5°C target alongside its national air quality targets.

To support this objective, Climate and Clean Air Coalition partners are conducting an integrated climate and air pollution assessment of China’s emission pathways consistent with the 2 °C and 1.5°C global temperature limits. The assessment will be completed in time to support the development of China’s National 14th Five-Year Plan.

This project is funded by the Coalition's Action Programme to Address the 1.5˚C Challenge, a programme developed by Coalition partners in response to the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C which emphasizes the need for early action on all climate forcing emissions, including short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), as part of the pathway to stay well below 2˚C.

Objectives

The main purpose of this project is to support the development of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan and stated objective of simultaneously combatting climate change and air pollution. The integrated climate change and air pollution assessment resulting from this project is expected to support broader application of the multiple benefits pathway framework, both in China and internationally.

Planned activities

The assessment is being conducted by researchers at the China Energy Research Institute (ERI) within the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) using the Integrated Assessment Model for China (IPCA). The IPCA was developed in 2000 by the ERI to assess options to meet China’s climate mitigation targets. In 2013 the IPCA was enhanced to include air pollution emissions from non-energy sources and to also conduce cost-benefit analyses.

Upcoming activities include:

Developing a report with results from the modelling of integrated scenarios and key findings to support the drafting process of China’s Five-Year Plan.
Preparing an assessment report including quantified changes in water demand, economic cost-benefit analyses, air pollution, and energy use.
Organizing local and internal workshops to present the report conclusions and inform policymakers and researchers.
Developing targeted policy briefs for key officials involved in the Five-Year Plan process.