Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)

The Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is the home and primary development institution for GCAM, a multisector model for exploring consequences of and responses to global to local changes and stressors. Regional energy, water, land, and economic systems are connected to the rest of the globe through trade and interactions with environmental systems. These systems are also connected with each other. Multisector models such as GCAM capture these interconnected impacts in an economic framework in order to explore these dynamic interactions and feedbacks between regions and sectors.

GCAM has been developed at PNNL-JGCRI for over 20 years and is a freely available community model and documented online (See below). The team at JGCRI is comprised of physical scientists, engineers, economists, energy experts, forest ecologists, agricultural scientists, and environmental system scientists who develop the model and apply it to a range of research questions. The JGCRI team works closely with the developers of other Earth system and ecosystem models to integrate the effects of human actions modeled in GCAM into their research.

Model Overview

GCAM is a dynamic-recursive model with technology-rich representations of the economy, energy sector, land use, and water linked to a reduced complexity Earth system model that can be used to explore many science and decision-relevant questions including the effects of changes in trade patterns, critical minerals & materials availability, and deployment of energy technologies on human and Earth systems. Regional population and labor productivity growth assumptions drive the energy and land-use systems, employing numerous technology options to produce, transform, and provide energy services, as well as to produce agriculture and forest products, and to determine land use and land cover. Using a run period extending from 1990 – 2100 (historical years through 2021) with annual results computed at 1-5 year intervals, GCAM has been used to explore the potential role of emerging energy supply technologies and the consequences of specific measures or energy technology adoption, including bioenergy; critical minerals & materials; hydrogen systems; nuclear energy; renewable energy technologies; carbon capture, storage, and utilization and energy use technology in buildings, industry, and the transportation sectors. GCAM outputs include projections of future energy and critical mineral supply, trade, and demand and the resulting radiative forcing and other effects of 16 greenhouse gases, aerosols, and short-lived species at 0.5×0.5 degree resolution, contingent on assumptions about future population, economy, technology, trade and other polices.