Global Methane Status Report 2025

Methane’s atmospheric concentrations have more than doubled since pre-industrial times. According to new modelling for this report, global anthropogenic emissions of methane reached approximately 352 million tonnes (Mt) per year in 2020 and, under current legislation, are projected to continue rising, reaching 369 Mt per year in 2030, 5 per cent above 2020. These rising global emissions would contribute to almost 24,000 additional premature deaths and 2.5 Mt of crop losses annually by 2030, relative to 2020, and would commit the world to an additional 0.025°C of warming by 2050. The economic damage of these impacts could reach US$43 billion per year in 2030. The largest increases are forecast for the agricultural and waste sectors, driven by projected larger livestock herds and higher waste generation due to expanding populations and economic growth. 

This projected growth is, however, slower compared to previous assessments. At the time the GMP was negotiated, emissions were expected to continue increasing steadily, reaching 383 Mt per year by 2030. Since then, new waste management regulations in Europe and North America, and slow growth in natural gas markets have translated into a lower-than-expected increase in anthropogenic methane emissions. As a result, the new current legislation (CLE) scenario projects that emissions in 2030 will be 14 Mt lower than previously estimated, equivalent to more than 10 per cent of current annual methane emissions from the energy sector globally.

The primary challenge for GMP participating countries was to arrest and reverse the trend of rapidly increasing emissions, as a first step towards reducing emissions by 30 per cent below 2020 levels. The last five years have seen unparalleled global attention and action to address methane which should reverse the rise in emissions by 2030. Even though a number of significant methane emitters, including three of the top five, are yet to committed to the GMP, an increasing number of policies and plans have been adopted and are starting to be implemented. Countries’ political commitments to reduce methane emissions have grown substantially in both number and specificity, reflecting a broader global ownership of national methane mitigation planning, as shown in the latest Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Methane Action Plans (MAPs). As of June 2025, 127 countries, 65 per cent of countries who are Parties to the Paris Agreement, include policies and measures targeting major methane sources in their latest NDCs, representing an approximate 38 per cent increase compared with pre-2020 NDCs (92 countries), with particularly notable increases among United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Non-Annex I countries1. 115 countries, 59 per cent, include measures addressing methane from waste, 85, 44 per cent, include agricultural methane measures and 35, 18 per cent, include measures targeting emissions from fossil fuels. Compared with pre-2020 NDCs, this reflects increases of 58 per cent, 89 per cent and 52 per cent, respectively.

The NDC and MAP commitments, if fully implemented, would translate into a reduction of annual global anthropogenic methane emissions by up to 42 Mt by 2030 compared with the current legislation (CLE) for 2030, equivalent to 8 per cent below 2020 levels. This is insufficient to meet the GMP target by 2030, but would still deliver major climate and development benefits, avoiding up to 60,000 premature deaths and 6.1 Mt of crop losses annually by 2030, and up to 0.06°C of warming by 2050, relative to the CLE scenario. The value of these benefits is up to US$107 billion per year by 2030, far outweighing the cost of implementing the measures. This reduction would also represent the largest and most sustained decline in anthropogenic methane emissions with available records.

Meeting the 2030 GMP target will require further raising of ambition to the full implementation of the maximum technically feasible reductions (MTFR) globally, with mitigation potential varying between countries and across the three main emitting sectors: energy, agriculture, and waste by 2030 – a short timeframe. With full implementation of all technical measures globally, annual methane emissions in 2030 could be reduced by 131 Mt below CLE 2030 levels, representing a 32 per cent reduction compared with 2020 emissions levels. This level of action would deliver substantial benefits, including avoiding 0.2°C of warming by 2050 (averaged over 2040–2070). It would also avoid over 180,000 premature deaths, and nearly 19 Mt of avoided crop losses annually by 2030. The value of these benefits is estimated to exceed US$330 billion annually by 2030. When factoring in the broader social cost of methane, the benefit would be even greater.

Following current legislation, emissions are expected to continue increasing to 427 Mt per year by 2050, 21 per cent above 2020 levels. In 1.5°C and 2°C-consistent scenarios developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6), global methane emissions should decrease steadily through mid-century, falling more than 50 per cent below 2020 levels by 2050. 

After 2030, targeted technical mitigation options alone will not be sufficient to reduce methane emissions to levels consistent with climate and development goals. Additional maximum technically feasible reductions could reach 220 Mt per year by 2050, a 37 per cent reduction below 2020 levels. Similarly, focusing on broader decarbonisation action in the energy and transport sectors alone will not be enough to meet the GMP by 2030 or stay on a 1.5°C or 2°C trajectory through 2050.

The pathway to 2050 consistent with agreed climate goals requires a combination of full implementation of targeted technical methane control measures with parallel efforts to decarbonize global energy and transportation systems, along with shifts in demand-side behaviour including the adoption of healthier diets and reducing food waste. This combined pathway could reduce annual emissions to 164 Mt per year in 2050, 53 per cent reduction below 2020 levels. Continued research and development of new and emerging methane abatement technologies, particularly in the agricultural sector, could increase this mitigation potential.

Most global anthropogenic methane emissions come from three sectors: about 42 per cent from the agricultural sector, 38 per cent from the energy sector and 20 per cent from the waste sector. Two-thirds, 65 per cent, of total emissions originate from the G20 plus group of countries (G20+) which includes the 19 sovereign countries of the G20, plus the remaining 24 European Union countries, 3 Western European countries, Norway, Switzerland and Iceland, and New Zealand. 

Full implementation of all available technical measures globally in all three sectors is required in all countries – not just GMP participating ones – to meet the 2030 GMP target. Mitigation potential in these sectors vary from one country to another. 72 per cent of the global methane mitigation potential by 2030 from 2020 emission levels, lies with the G20+ countries where emissions could be reduced by 36 per cent between 2020 and 2030. 

The total annual cost of achieving the full MTFR in 2030 is estimated at US$127 billion. More than 80 per cent of the MTFR, 109 Mt per year could be implemented for a low-annual cost.

The Energy Sector

The energy sector offers the largest share of ready-to-implement, cost-effective methane mitigation options. Under current legislation, annual methane emissions from the energy sector are projected to decline slightly in this decade but will then increase by 8 per cent by 2050, compared with 2020 levels. Achieving energy sector mitigation commitments in NDCs and MAPs could reduce emissions by up to 26 Mt by 2030. This, however, remains far below the potential of full deployment of MTFRs, which could reduce emissions from the energy sector by 94 Mt per year by 2030 compared with CLE 2030, in line with the GMP target. The combined total annual cost for MTFR measures in the energy sector is US$98 billion, which is equivalent to just 2–4 per cent of the sector’s income in 2023 – and this estimate does not include environmental benefits. 

To achieve this additional mitigation potential, urgent and coordinated action is needed to scale up proven solutions and fully harness notable recent progress in methane policy, particularly in oil and gas, as well as kickstarting action in the coal sector, which lags significantly behind. Despite readily available low-cost mitigation options in the coal sector, such as Regenerative Thermal Oxidizers (RTOs), pre-mine degasification, abandoned-mine methane control, and improved mine closure, technical and economic challenges, along with a lack of global voluntary initiatives for companies, have hindered action. Nonetheless, some jurisdictions, including such major coal producers as Australia and China, have recently taken steps to regulate coal methane emissions. 

Since the launch of the GMP in 2021, oil and gas regulations have expanded and become more innovative. Comprehensive frameworks now cover many major producing regions. The European Union has introduced the world’s first methane import standard, while countries including Brazil, Canada and Kazakhstan are strengthening national regulations. Voluntary initiatives by the industry have also grown rapidly, programmes such as the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP) 2.0 and the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC) now cover 40–45 per cent of global oil and gas output, more than doubling their reach in recent years. 

Critical implementation barriers, however, persist: fragmented regulation, weak enforcement, lack of emissions monitoring capacity, limited access to finance in the case of national oil companies (NOCs) in least developed countries, and inconsistent data transparency. Addressing these barriers through targeted policy, finance, and capacity and technical assistance is needed to realize the technical potential. While there are many efforts underway, there needs to be a shift to move from fragmented voluntary efforts to more coherent and enforceable action.

The Waste Sector

Without additional action, methane emissions from waste are projected to increase by 13 per cent by 2030 and 56 per cent by 2050, compared with 2020 levels. This rise is driven by population and economic growth, along with expanded waste and wastewater collection, which provides significant health and environmental benefits but also increases methane emissions unless targeted mitigation measures are implemented in parallel. Even with current pledges in the latest NDCs and MAPs, annual emissions from the sector are expected to grow by 3 Mt in 2030 compared with 2020. 

Full deployment of methane targeted measures in the sector could reduce annual emissions by 13 Mt per year by 2030, compared to CLE 2030. But the mitigation benefits of these pre-2030 investments in landfill and waste management systems are projected to grow to 21 Mt per year by 2040, as methane emissions from legacy waste can persist for decades. 

These mitigation opportunities could deliver significant cost savings, US$9 billion annually primarily due to energy savings through methane capture. Simple interventions – such as preventing food loss and waste, promoting household- and community-level composting, and enforcing basic operational standards at disposal sites – could yield immediate results with minimal investment. 

Many countries and municipalities are demonstrating that significant methane mitigation in the waste sector can be achieved cost-effectively, and often at net savings. Successful implementation is underway in diverse contexts, supported by a growing body of international initiatives and financing tools. 

Despite this progress, key barriers remain, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Weak regulatory frameworks and enforcement, insufficient infrastructure and technical capacity, fragile financial systems with low fee collection, underdeveloped markets and limited demand for valorised outputs, fragmented governance, and low public awareness collectively constrain integrated waste management, limiting the prevention, separation and valorisation of organic waste as well as other methane mitigation opportunities in the sector. 

Implementation of waste sector methane targeted technical measures should go hand in hand and align with longer-term decarbonisation and circular-economy objectives, prioritizing upstream measures such as mechanisms and incentives to prevent food loss and waste, together with mandatory source separation, while also considering consistent treatment of organic wastes and valorisation infrastructure, and improved landfill engineering to ensure the sector contributes meaningfully to global methane abatement goals. Cost-effective interventions, including composting, black-soldier-fly facilities and basic waste treatment operational standards, can deliver significant results. Economic and fiscal instruments are key to promoting the separate collection and valorisation of organic waste, enabling the development of infrastructure and driving methane mitigation solutions in the waste sector.

The Agricultural Sector

The agricultural sector is the largest source of anthropogenic methane emissions. Emissions vary by region, with the G20+ group of countries responsible for 61 per cent of agricultural methane, equivalent to one-quarter of total anthropogenic methane emissions. 

Agricultural methane emissions are projected to increase by about 8 per cent by 2030 and around 17 per cent by 2050, compared with 2020 levels. This growth is driven largely by demand for food for a growing global population and the expansion of livestock numbers in Africa and Latin America, and with the non-G20+ regions experiencing the largest increases in emissions. Due to these drivers, even with the implementation of current NDCs and MAPs, emissions from agriculture would still rise by up to 4 per cent by 2030 compared with 2020 levels. 

Yet, the agricultural sector has the technical potential to reduce emissions by 24 Mt per year by 2030, 8 per cent below 2020 levels in this decade, and 7 per cent by 2050.

Low-cost measures measures could be implemented at a total annual cost of US$2.5 billion, while reducing annual methane emissions by 17 Mt by 2030. This investment amounts to less than 3 per cent of the subsidies governments currently allocate to the sector every year. Repurposing even a small share of these subsidies could significantly help finance methane mitigation. 

There has been a generally positive trend in the development of policies targeting agricultural methane emissions over the past decade, particularly in the areas of animal waste management. This progress has been most notable in Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America, where enabling policy environments and accessible technologies have driven the adoption of measures to reduce emissions from manure. Despite this progress, however, only a small share of GMP participating countries have policies directly addressing key methane sources in the sector. 

This reflects a broader misalignment between the focus of methane policies and the actual sources of emissions. While animal waste is more commonly regulated, for example, enteric fermentation, a much larger source of methane emissions globally, remains under-addressed. Additionally, policies to reduce emissions from rice cultivation and agricultural biomass burning are often missing in key regions and high-emitting countries in Asia. In addition, there is still limited evidence for policies effectiveness in reducing emissions or the costs of their implementation. This lack of data presents a challenge for scaling up efforts in a targeted and efficient manner. 

To close these gaps, countries must transition from short-term, fragmented measures to long-term, holistic and equity-based policies.

Transparent, reliable data is essential for tracking progress toward methane-reduction commitments by governments and industries. The effectiveness of mitigation strategies hinges on data that are robust, accessible and credible, enabling stakeholders to maximize the impact of their commitments. Transparent, measurement-based monitoring – applied frequently and across representative areas – allows policymakers and operators to accurately assess progress, ensuring that operational and policy-driven shifts translate into tangible climate benefits. A new generation of policies, such as the European Union Methane Regulation, also rely on availability of such data to be implemented effectively.

Satellite-based coverage and global ground and airborne observation networks need to be strengthened. Dense, near-source regional studies continue to reveal significant underreporting of methane emissions, particularly within the fossil fuel sector. Increasing accuracy of data requires expanding satellite-based coverage and strengthening global ground and airborne observation networks. Reconciling differences between regional and global estimates through systematic gap analyses will improve the accuracy of emissions inventories by reducing the reliance on generic emission factors and enhance trust in the data that underpins mitigation planning. Without rigorous verification, persistent underreporting could compromise efforts to design effective policies and measure progress towards emissions-reduction goals.

Industries and regulators should be equipped with the capacity to deploy these measurement approaches and tools effectively. Measurement approaches fulfil two critical functions: identifying large-scale emission patterns to inform inventories and long-term tracking, and providing highly granular, site-level data to guide operational mitigation and regulatory enforcement. Ensuring the robustness of quantification methodologies through rigorous testing remains vital for maintaining data quality and stakeholder trust. The fossil fuel sector demonstrates how direct measurement tools can significantly improve mitigation effectiveness; extending their use to other anthropogenic methane sources offers substantial untapped potential. Equipping industries and regulators with the capacity to deploy these tools effectively, and ensuring the resulting data are actionable and relevant, will be key to accelerating methane reductions globally.

Methane finance is growing, but still insufficient for meeting 2030 needs. Tracked methane finance has risen in recent years, with Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) analysis showing an 18 per cent increase to an annual average of US$13.7 billion in 2021 and 2022. This, however, remains far below the estimated US$127 billion net annual cost by 2030 to implement technical abatement measures consistent with the GMP target. While significant, these costs represent only about 6 per cent of global climate finance flows in 2023 and just over half of the year-on-year increase in climate finance from 2022 to 2023. The energy and agricultural sector mitigation costs also represent a small fraction of sectoral revenues or harmful subsidies, suggesting the financing challenge is surmountable.

Closing the investment gap requires supportive policies to attract private-sector leadership and secure commercial finance. Addressing the methane finance shortfall demands action from a diverse range of sources, but access to capital is not always the primary barrier. Policy gaps, limited institutional capacity, inadequate data and a lack of bankable projects often impede progress. Particularly in developing economies, catalytic public or philanthropic funding for technical assistance, capacity support and institutional strengthening, as well as project preparation, is crucial. With supportive policies in place, many methane abatement measures are cost-effective, spur private-sector action and secure commercial finance.

Development and private finance have a pivotal opportunity to scale support. Development finance institutions (DFIs) currently provide about US$3 billion annually for methane mitigation – small compared with their US$2.5 trillion in total yearly investments. Yet methane abatement delivers co-benefits aligned with development mandates and DFIs have an opportunity to scale support, while private-sector actors, including corporations, investors and financial institutions, are emerging as critical drivers of methane finance. Expanding engagement from both groups will be key to closing the methane investment gap and accelerating progress towards global climate goals.