Air Pollution, Health, and Economics: Evaluating the Impact of WHO targets and Guideline Values on Mortality and Morbidity in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

This preprint presents a health and economic impact assessment of achieving the WHO Air Quality Guidelines (AQGs) and Interim Target 3 (IT-3) for ambient PM₂.₅ and NO₂ across 136 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Using high-resolution air pollution, population, and disease burden data, the study estimates the reductions in mortality, morbidity, and associated economic costs that could result from meeting these air quality targets. The analysis covers major health outcomes including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and dementia, and applies concentration–response functions alongside economic valuation methods to quantify the societal benefits of cleaner air.

The study finds that achieving the WHO guideline values could prevent millions of premature deaths and disease cases annually, particularly in Asia and Africa, while generating substantial economic benefits through reduced healthcare costs, improved productivity, and lower mortality risk. The resource provides valuable evidence for policymakers, researchers, and public health practitioners seeking to strengthen the economic case for air quality interventions and accelerate progress towards WHO air quality targets in LMICs. As a preprint, the findings have not yet undergone peer review but offer a timely contribution to the evidence base on the health and economic benefits of air pollution reduction.