Global burden of mortalities due to chronic exposure to ambient PM2.5 from open combustion of domestic waste

Uncontrolled burning of household waste is common in many countries and raises serious air quality concerns, but its impact on human health has not been well measured. The authors used the emissions data from Wiedinmyer et al. (2014) in the global GEOS-Chem model to make the first estimate of how many adults die early each year from long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) released by uncontrolled waste burning. Based on the health risk functions developed by Burnett et al. (2014), they estimate that about 270,000 adults die prematurely each year from this exposure, with a possible range between 213,000 and 328,000 deaths. This estimate assumes that PM2.5 from waste burning is just as harmful as PM2.5 from other sources.

The authors note that their results depend on the model, health functions, and emissions data used. Their best estimate suggests that uncontrolled waste burning could account for around 9% of all adult deaths linked to outdoor air pollution reported in the Global Burden of Disease Study (2010). More than half the world’s population faces over a 0.5% higher risk of early death from this pollution source. Sensitivity tests showed that doubling or halving the estimated emissions changed the results to between 138,000 and 518,000 deaths per year. Completely removing waste burning would prevent around 191,000 deaths annually. The authors also found that using lower-resolution models reduced estimated deaths by 16–21%, meaning their global figures are likely conservative and underestimate the true impact of waste burning on health.