Kenya National Electric Cooking Strategy: Modelling Report

This document details the modelling approaches and findings used to inform the interventions within the eCooking Strategy. It utilises data collected during the KNeCS Baseline Study (2023), and is designed to explore key research questions that have emerged during the strategy development process.

The modelling effort for KNeCS utilised two major tools: Open Source energy Modelling SYStem (OSeMOSYS) and the Benefits of Action to Reduce Household Air Pollution (BAR-HAP) tool.

OSeMOSYS is a comprehensive energy modelling tool used for scenario analysis. In this context, it was employed to forecast trends in energy demand and fuel shares between 2019 and 2050, producing insights from four scenarios: Business as Usual, Net Zero, Stated Policies, and the eCooking Transition. OSeMOSYS utilizes a bottom-up approach to simulate and analyse energy systems, considering various supply-side and demand-side factors to determine the most efficient energy mix. This approach is particularly relevant to the cooking sector as it helps in understanding the implications of shifting from traditional fuels to electric cooking, assessing the impact on grid capacity and energy demand.

The BAR-HAP (Benefits of Action to Reduce Household Air Pollution) tool was used to complement OSeMOSYS by modelling fuel stacking, transitions from traditional fuels to eCooking, and the associated costs and benefits. BAR-HAP provided detailed insights into the financial costs of adopting eCooking at both the household and the government’s level, as well as the potential benefits in terms of time savings, improved public health, and reduced emissions.

While OSeMOSYS and BAR-HAP utilize different methodologies, they were used iteratively to identify the most feasible pathway for scaling eCooking in Kenya. OSeMOSYS focuses on the broader energy system and grid implications, whereas BAR-HAP delves into the detailed dynamics of household fuel use and its impacts. Together, these tools offered complementary insights, enabling a robust and comprehensive assessment of the potential for eCooking to contribute to Kenya's net zero targets and broader developmental goals.

Below is the outline of this report:

• Clean Cooking Scenario Modelling: This section presents the outcomes from forecasting trends in energy demand and fuel shares using OSeMOSYS. Findings from four scenarios are analyzed.
• Impact of Scaling eCooking on the grid: This section models the shifting generation mix and the ability of the system to meet new eCooking demand from the different scenarios.
• Modelling Stacking and eCooking Transitions: This section assesses fuel stacking and attempts to quantify the potential impact of different eCooking interventions.
• Using the BAR HAP Tool: Modeling eCooking Transitions: In this section, the BAR-HAP tool is used to assess the costs and benefits that are associated with the proposed eCooking transition scenario, and assesses some sensitivity scenarios.