Premature Mortality and Costs Attributable to Imported Primary PM2.5 from a Densely Urbanized Metropolis

This preprint investigates the health and economic impacts of transboundary transport of fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) between neighbouring metropolitan areas in Mexico. The study examines how emissions from the Mexico City Metropolitan Area contribute to air pollution exposure in surrounding regions, specifically the Toluca Valley and Cuernavaca metropolitan areas. Using the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) atmospheric transport model, geographic information systems (GIS), and the U.S. EPA’s Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), the authors estimate potentially avoidable premature deaths and associated economic costs linked to imported PM₂.₅ exposure.

The analysis highlights the importance of considering airshed-level dynamics rather than only administrative boundaries when designing air quality policies. The study estimates that PM₂.₅ exported from the Mexico City Metropolitan Area in 2018 may have contributed to thousands of premature deaths and substantial economic costs in neighbouring metropolitan areas, demonstrating the need for coordinated regional air quality management strategies. The resource is relevant for policymakers, air quality managers, and researchers conducting health impact assessments, source attribution studies, and economic evaluations of pollution control measures.