Technical support to inform Mongolia's NDC

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A Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) partner since 2014, Mongolia is actively engaged to mitigate air pollution and climate change simultaneously. In 2019, the Government of Mongolia approved its revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) which committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 22.7% in 2030 compared to a business as usual scenario. This commitment is expected to lead to reduction of key air pollutants and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) including black carbon emissions by 12% and methane by 23%.  

The next NDC updates should be communicated by 2025 and every five years thereafter. Over the next four years, there is a substantial opportunity for Mongolia to undertake activities that can contribute to an ambitious NDC submission in 2025 by also considering SLCPs. 

Under this project, Mongolia improved national capacity in order to assess and estimate integrated climate and clean air mitigation measures. This work has helped to set up long-term projections, assess the mitigation potential of NDC measures and of potential additional measures as well as to estimate the impact of air pollution on health.

Objectives


The main expected outcomes of this project were:  

 

  • Assessment of the methods currently used to estimate emissions in the national greenhouse gas inventory and future projections for the NDC, with recommendations on how these can be improved  
  • Improved analysis of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions using the LEAP-IBC tool, including projections extending to 2050 (from current 2030-time horizon) 
  • A cost-benefit assessment  
  • Capacity-building within the Ministry of Environment and Tourism (MET) to assess greenhouse gas and air pollutant mitigation potential of different plans, policies and strategies and to apply this capacity to climate change planning processes  
  • Integration of results and outputs in climate change planning (e.g. NDC implementation plans, long-term strategies) and reporting frameworkds  (e.g. National Communication, Biennial Update Reports, greenhouse gas inventory, MRV framework) 


Activities

This activity supported the improvement of the greenhouse gas inventory and mitigation analysis in three sectors and provided capacity building to national experts to sustain and improve the analysis.  

Two workshops were conducted to train national, regional and city representatives on the use of the LEAP-IBC modeling tool. The first workshop, held in March 2021, provided a general introduction to LEAP modeling, taking participants through a generic LEAP training exercise. During the second workshop in June 2021, the participants were introduced how LEAP can be used to undertake integrated assessments of air pollutants, SLCPs and greenhouse gases in Mongolia.  

With two national consultants, the LEAP dataset for Mongolia was enhanced to include additional sectors, specifically HFCs, update data and extend the evaluation to 2050.  

The supported work resulted in recommendations and guidance on how Mongolia could update its NDC in 2025. Specifically, the recommendations show how Mongolia could update its NDC through three types of enhancement: 
  

  • Expand the greenhouse gases included in the NDC document. Specifically, how hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) can be incorporated into the greenhouse gas reduction target.  
  • Update data and include long-term 2050 scenarios for low emissions development  
  • Include SLCPs, air pollutants, and associated health benefits in the NDC. Future emission pathways were outlined for air pollutants and SLCPs as well as greenhouse gases to show how future actions on climate change could contribute to alleviating Mongolia’s substantial air pollution issues. Given the substantial impact air quality has in Mongolia, and in particular in Ulaanbaatar, the inclusion of air pollution benefits in Mongolia’s climate change planning could have substantial additional benefits beyond reduction of greenhouse gases.  

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